Welcome to Green Rising – Donald Trump joyously thinks the mark of working-class prosperity is a factory job. 

He is inviting a tariff crash in the world economy to put more Americans into blue overalls, decades after “their” jobs moved to China. 

That the ensuing policies damage the planet, including Africa, is of little concern to their maker. 

Okay. Here on the continent, we too have applauded factory jobs recently. It’s great to see an ever growing number of Africans building electric vehicles and solar panels. 

More please! Do combine cleantech and industrial manufacture to drive a virtuous cycle locally. 

This is the promise of the “green economy”. There need not be a conflict between boosting our planet and our prosperity.

But here is the thing: Neither will the planet be healed nor will Africans attain a reasonable standard of living… thanks to manufacturing alone. Not even close. 

That would be a Trumpian delusion. 

This (pictured above) is what industry primarily looks like in Africa. The majority of Africans have worked in agriculture since time immemorial – and still do today. 

A fraction of the overall population is moving to cities every year. And a fraction of those are finding jobs created thanks to “green industrialisation”.

The rest? Farming for many generations to come. You don’t just leave behind an industry that “employs” up to three-quarters of your people. 

A green economy tiptoeing around the outer rim of agriculture is doomed to fail. And yet that is where we are right now. 

Venture capital is unsentimental. It chases down ideas that can return 100-fold wins in a decade. Agri startups struggle to compete in that arena. 

Governments are equally unsentimental. When they meet innovators, they see risks. Few officials get re-elected by taking them.  

But here is the good news. Instead of just looking to China for paths to prosperity, perhaps consider India. 

It has achieved something extraordinary = eliminating poverty without a manufacturing miracle that sweeps hundreds of millions into factories. 

A popular myth says the route out of penury leads to cities. The evidence? Western countries have all seen a collapse in farming employment. 

Yet India… not so much. Farming is losing few to its expanding factories. Almost half the population (42.3% by one count) still tills the land. The migrant manufacturing class remains small. 

At the same time, Indians have completed a remarkable climb out of poverty. Less than 1% of households now sit below the international poverty line ($2.15 per day), so a new study found – led by Surjit Bhalla, a former executive director of the IMF. 

The even better news: The Indian model might be good for the planet too if properly implemented. It certainly involves far less concrete being poured.

So how did India do it? Simply put, its agriculture got a whole lot more productive. 

• It is expanding above 4% annually since 2018, outperforming many global peers.

• Together with fisheries, it generates more than a quarter of GDP now. 

• Agricultural exports reached $50 billion, making India a net agri-exporter.

But how? Indian officials developed and implemented a complex mix of policies. Call it a playbook. It has three pillars: Finance, tech and organisation. 

First, finance: The Indian state has invested heavily in funding an agricultural expansion: 

• Some $86 billion was directed toward sustainable agriculture activities for the 2020-2022 financial year including irrigation and soil health

• Policies like Minimum Support Price (MSP) have ensured financial stability for farmers and supported diversification into high-value crops.

• Agricultural credit grew 1.5-fold from 2021 to 2024, with 36% of farmers accessing formal bank loans compared to 9% in 2022, facilitated by digital platforms.

Second, tech: This is more about implementation than just innovation: 

• India launched the Digital Agriculture Mission (2021–25) to promote advanced technologies like blockchain, AI and drones for farming.

• The number of agri-tech startups in India grew from fewer than 50 in 2013 to over 1,000 by 2020, driven by rising internet penetration and farmer awareness.

• Internet of Things (IoT) technologies are used for irrigation, pest monitoring and yield tracking, with widespread adoption reported.

Third, organisation: This is a snapshot of a reordering that’s taken place: 

• Over 10,000 Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) are being established with a $750 million investment to collectivise farmers and improve access to solutions.

• 2.8 million hectares (2% of net sown area) are under organic farming, supported by schemes like Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY) targeting 10,000 clusters.

• 800,000 farmers have adopted Andhra Pradesh Community Managed Natural Farming (APCNF), making it India’s fastest-growing sustainable practice.

Which bits can Africa copy? Is it feasible to think of importing the whole India playbook? 

Skeptics will point out that India is one country while Africa is made up of 55, complicating scaled policies.  

Optimists should retort that India has the same size population as Africa and is mostly run at the level of regional states, of which there are 28. 

The greatest hurdle is likely not size or complexity, though they are daunting. Even more challenging can be accepting unfamiliar foreign wisdom. 

We saw this message on a green-economy WhatsApp group recently: 

Well, Trumpian delusions tend to be closely aligned with conspiracy theories. Embracing them is another great way to underperform. 

Outside help is needed to stretch Africa’s green economy beyond investment in manufacturing. Miracles may or may not come from factories. But the idea that they alone can point the way to sustainable prosperity is sinking.

Number of the week 

… rural Kenyans have gained electricity access through the Last Mile Connectivity Project (LMCP) since 2015, nearly halving the number of people without access to power. One in five Kenyan households uses a solar mini-grid or standalone solar system.

Network corner

Top green jobs from…

• Zutari: Regional Director: South-East Africa (Mozambique)

• Wildlife Conservation Society: Finance Director (Central African Republic)

• Globeleq: Project Director - Project Kafue (Zambia)

• African Green Revolution Forum: Head Inclusive Finance (Kenya)

• Burn Manufacturing: Head of Indirect Procurement (Namibia)

• SNV: Sector Leader Agri-food (Rwanda)

• One Acre Fund: Government Relations Lead (Tanzania)

• Water Mission: West Nile Regional Manager (Uganda)

• Sun King: State Business Manager, North Region (Togo)

• Metro Africa Xpress: Senior Accountant(Cameroon)