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Africa's coal giants finally face a transition moment

Digging below ground is no longer what it used to be. But what comes next isn’t always clear

June 26, 2025

Welcome to Green Rising – If we could decarbonise just one thing in Africa, what would it be? 

South Africa has the most carbon-intensive economy on the continent (as well as among G20 countries!). 

  • It produces 200 million tons of coal per year. 

  • It’s the fifth-largest coal producer globally.

Heavy reliance on coal for electricity follows, creating greenhouse gas emissions.

  • Over 80% of South Africa's electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants.

If Africa is to see a lower-carbon future, South African coal is the obvious place to start. 

And it’s happening. Slowly. As far back as 2018 the government suggested decommissioning its 16 coal-fired power plants. 

  • The aim then was to reduce reliance on coal for energy to below 20% by 2050. 

  • A 2021 policy suggested raising $8.5 billion to transition to a low-carbon economy. 

Since then the coal-fuelled power grid has seen major dysfunction – due to corruption and mismanagement. National utility Eskom has become a byword for shameful failure, after power prices rose 450%, opening the door wider to decarbonisation.

But King Coal is far from toppled. 

Renewables cannot yet provide enough juice. Installed capacity at coal-fired power stations is around 42,000 MW. Renewables have only just inched past 12,000 MW. 

The country also exports its coal – and risks losing billions in revenues there. 

  • About 40% of South Africa’s coal goes abroad, generating much-needed wealth.

The government’s own Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources shows a strong attachment to coal. 

  • Its experts question loans for renewable energy and the adoption of electric vehicles.

Dysfunction in the administrative state generally stands in the way.

  • Billions are allocated for mine rehabilitation post-closure but remain stuck in limbo.

The private sector too is attached to coal. Many mines are privately owned to generate power for specific industrial plants. 

  • Such “captive coal” sits outside the public grid and is even harder to throttle.

Still, the biggest hurdle – and one that deserves sympathy – are those digging for coal.

Mining is the main driver of employment in certain regions. Mining is the economy there. 

  • South Africa has 78 operating mines, and 83% sit in Mpumalanga province. 

  • About 92,000 people are employed directly and nearly 250,000 indirectly.

  • 62% of impacted households have at least one dependent and no other income.

Transition threatens livelihoods. Fears understandably circle the phasing out of coal.

Europeans have seen this movie before. Poland, Germany and the UK saw the collapse of domestic coal sectors decades ago (due to competition from cheaper countries… )

  • Mine closures led to prolonged and sometimes violent protests. 

  • UK politics was frozen for years in the mid-1980s by battles with unions. 

By contrast, the South African Federation of Trade Unions supports a move to renewable energy. 

  • But it estimates that without a just transition that “protects the livelihoods of mining and energy workers, some 40,000 jobs will be lost”.

How to replace them – is the big question. 

Africa’s green economy could create 3.3 million jobs by 2030, mostly in renewable energy.

  • If South Africa achieved 50% solar and wind generation, this could create 150,000 permanent jobs in the next decade.

  • Electric vehicle assembly, charging infrastructure and battery recycling will also create new technical and non-technical employment.

But do miners have the right skills? Could training get them there? The European experience does not raise a lot of hopes.  

The engines of change are revving away in the meantime. Renewables are booming in South Africa.

  • The country is adding 1,000 MW to 2,000 MW in solar per year – more than some African countries’ entire installed (dirty) capacity.

Felling old-style mining is hard. But a growing armoury is being brought to bear, including money. 

  • The World Bank-linked Climate Investment Funds this month approved a $2.2 billion coal-exit plan for South Africa. 

  • The country has secured a total of $11.5 billion in pledges from international partners to support its transition.

Rulebooks – foreign and domestic – are also deployed to throttle coal. 

  • A South African court has ruled that no new coal-fired power stations can be built.

  • The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism pushes exporters to decarbonise. 

Over 90% of coal consumed on the continent is mined in South Africa. But other nations will be affected too. They are: 

  • Morocco (9 million tons annually)

  • Zimbabwe (3.5 million tons)

  • Egypt (2.3 million tons)

  • Botswana (1.4 million tons)

  • Zambia (1.2 million tons)

  • Senegal (900,000), Kenya (800,000), Ethiopia (700,000)

When will Africa dump coal? That also depends on richer role models. Pressure to decarbonise generation is easing rather than growing. 

  • China is building 172 new coal power stations

  • Indonesia is building 56 new coal power stations

  • India is building 47 new coal power stations

  • Vietnam is building 11 new coal power stations

  • Bangladesh is building 11 new power stations

How to explain that to the miners in South Africa’s Mpumalanga province?

Number of the week 

… additional jobs could be created in Africa by shifting to 100% renewable energy by 2050, says  Power Shift Africa, a climate and development think tank. To achieve this, installed renewable capacity would need to increase from 80 GW today to 3,500 GW, with decentralised renewable energy recognised as the fastest and most cost-effective path to universal energy access.

Network corner

❝

👉 KawiSafi Ventures was named Impact Fund of the Year at the 2025 Africa Impact Investment Awards for exceeding impact targets and reaching 213 million people with clean energy solutions

EVENTS UPDATE 

📆 Attend the Water Tech Africa conference in Kenya (July 16)

📆 Join the Intra-African Trade Fair in Algeria (Sept 4)

📆 Sign up for Big Tech Africa in Tunisia (Sept 9)

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What we’re reading

  • Virtual agro revolution: AI-driven farming advisors are transforming African agriculture by replacing scarce extension officers. Innovations like iSDA Africa’s Virtual Agronomist deliver tailored farming advice via WhatsApp for nutrient management, pest diagnosis and yield monitoring. (Environews Nigeria)

  • Do-tank revolution: Africa’s Green Economy and Sustainability Institute (AGESI) launched as the continent’s first “do-tank,” focusing on implementing concrete, bankable green projects rather than just policy talk. (Peoples Gazette)

  • Carbon potential: Africa's voluntary carbon market could reach $35 billion by 2030, enabling the continent to mobilise $6 billion annually in climate finance and support 30 million jobs. (African Business)

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