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An awful war may end, but not its (mostly positive) impact

Iran is an unlikely helpmate for accelerating Africa’s green transition. And yet...

May 28, 2026

Welcome to Green Rising – The meaning of the Iran war and resulting fuel shortages for Africa's green economy are becoming clear: Using fossil fuels used to be a safe but dirty choice. No more. Avoiding fossil fuels has become the safer choice, not just the cleaner one. The calculus has shifted. 

Anything shipped across oceans — whether fuel or machines — now faces an increased risk premium. That changes the trade-off between decarbonisation and security. They may have become the same thing. Both are now reasons to buy, or even better build, solar panels and EV components on the continent.

The price of oil will come down again, and many of the challenges on the continent remain the same (ditto in the Middle East). But after an awful war, or despite it, there is hopeful news. Perhaps you’ll enjoy our vision above of an ayatollah helping a ‘boda’ rider swap the battery of his electric motorbike.

Kenya’s diesel consumers, including industries, have been hit hard by a 42% increase in prices, the highest month-on-month rise, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supply. Nigeria saw even sharper increases, with prices doubling to $1.43 per litre. South Africa recorded increases of about 19%, as Egypt increased by 13%.

  • The increase in fuel prices could create an opportunity for renewables to gain momentum in Kenya, particularly following the recent gazettement of open access regulations, which open the entire power value chain to private sector investment.

  • This comes as a report by IRENA, the renewables agency, shows that renewables have become competitive and can now provide round-the-clock clean energy at lower costs than even new gas plants.

  • Our take: Even if oil prices drop, solar with storage will still be cheaper… Read more (2 min)

The price of vehicles, including EVs, could rise dramatically due to supply chain disruptions from the ongoing war in the Middle East, according to experts. They warn that the raging war could see vehicle prices rise between 5-15%, further reducing affordability. On the flip side, they project that the surge in oil prices could see an increased shift to EVs in the long-term

  • Africa relies on imported EVs, mainly from China. The war is forcing shipping companies to suspend or reroute vessels, adding nearly two weeks to transit times and raising freight costs.

  • Local EV production may not be able to immediately shield Africa from the full impact of global supply chain disruptions as the majority of components are also imported.

  • Our take: The Middle East conflict highlights Africa’s structural vulnerability in the EV supply chain… Read more (2 min)

African vehicle buyers hit by Iran war 

The impact of the ongoing war in Iran has started to be felt by motor vehicle buyers in Africa. According to reports, global vehicle manufacturers have notified Egyptian distributors of a price increase of up to $2,700 per vehicle. The war has forced ships to reroute, increasing freight rates by 50% or more on some routes. This has been tough for vehicle sellers.

  • Egypt is Africa’s second largest importer of EVs from China, according to Mobility Rising data, making it especially vulnerable to global supply shocks. Shipping firms have passed on additional freight costs to buyers.

  • Like other regions, Africa’s exposure to the war is growing. Most vehicles on order from key markets before the war are yet to be delivered. Amid increasing demand, this is expected to create further price pressure. 

  • Our take: This crisis will accelerate the shift toward regionalised EV production… Read more (2 min)

Number of the week

..is the number of electric two-wheelers sold in Africa in 2025, nearly eight times last year’s sales. Commercial use, ride-hailing and delivery services dominate the market. Uganda led growth with 30,000+ sales, while Kenyan sales tripled to 25,000 (or 15% of new registrations). 

Network corner

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👉 Dr. Jonathan Atkinson is appointed Solidaridad Managing Director to steer agri-transformation in southern Africa

Top green jobs from…

EVENTS UPDATE 

📆 Attend the Africa Waste Is Wealth Summit in Kenya (June 3)

📆 Sign Up for the Southern African Transport Conference in South Africa (July 6)

📆 Register for the Clean Energy Week in Mauritius (July 16)

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