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Green energy may be renewable but is it reliable?

It turns out there could be far MORE solar power in Africa already than anyone thought. Cringe, then celebrate

January 22, 2026

Welcome to Green Rising – Those of us who obsess about the size of things are ridiculed. And often rightly so. Who cares how high your office tower is, what do you do inside? But size does matter. As we have pointed out previously, nobody knows the size of Africa’s green economy. Nor even the renewables market, so it turns out. And that has real-world consequences. 

How investors see the African renewables market is being reset by a newly released report showing the continent may already have 64 GW of installed solar capacity, nearly three times the old estimate. It appears the energy sector has been basing major investment decisions on a false baseline, skewing planning in potentially sub-optimal ways.

  • Capital tends to flow to markets where data suggests scale and momentum, meaning Africa may have been overlooked despite strong fundamentals.

  • For utilities, it may mean they missed how much demand was already being met by behind-the-meter solar. As a result, demand forecasts likely overstated future grid consumption while underestimating customer defection.

  • Our take: Clearer data in future is likely to accelerate localisation of manufacturing and supply chains… Read more (2 min)

Which country leads in introducing electric buses? 

Ethiopia just launched ten new electric buses in Bahir Dar City, bringing its total fleet to 396. This extends Ethiopia’s lead as Africa’s largest electric bus market. All of the buses are operational, serving different routes across six major cities. The latest additions were made locally by the Belayneh Kinde Group, which operates a 1,000-units-a-year assembly plant.

  • Ethiopia is one of Africa's fastest growing EV hubs, due to its cheap power and state incentives. Tax structure strongly favours electric mobility through exemptions on VAT, excise duty, alongside reduced customs charges.

  • The country’s rising urbanisation is driving demand for cheaper, sustainable public transport. Ethiopia’s e-bus push could serve as an example for other African countries looking to electrify their mass transit.

  • Our take: Vans can electrify mass transit faster due to their lower costs and faster assembly compared to buses… Read more (2 min)

Blame the system, not the litterer. Widespread burning of plastics in households across Africa is driven less by individual choice than by structural ills in waste systems, notably the accumulation of uncollected rubbish and the absence of affordable and reliable collection. It shouldn’t be. Waste services can be highly profitable. Hallo market failure.

  • With population growth expected to accelerate across Africa, a new study warns that plastic burning could become even more common. Bans will likely backfire unless collection services expand in parallel.

  • Waste management across the continent remains constrained by uneven coverage, affordability gaps, weak municipal financing, fragmented informal systems, logistical barriers linked to urban form and the prevalence of mixed waste streams.

  • Our take: Without addressing structural barriers, circular ambitions in Africa will continue to struggle… Read more (2 min)

Number of the week

… people worked in African renewables in 2024, hampered by manufacturing constraints, financing gaps and weak grids. This is only 2% of the global total of 16.6 million jobs, despite 8 GW of solar capacity being built amid record 16.9 GW in Chinese imports. Solar drives jobs in off-grid installations, often informal and untracked. Localisation is vital to formalise employment and build specialised capacity for scale.

Network corner

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👉 Lolade Abiola was appointed Chief of Staff at SEforALL to oversee strategic planning and strengthen leadership operations. Congrats!

Top green jobs from…

EVENTS UPDATE 

📆 Join the Int’l Energy Trade Conference in Nigeria (February 3)

📆 Sign Up for the Africa Tech Summit in Kenya (February 11)

📆 Attend the Africa Green Economy Summit in SA (February 24)

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