Welcome to Green Rising – Should Africa be a vending machine for sustainable industry inputs? Would that be all bad? 

A certain man in a certain white house seems very comfortable with the idea. To Donald Trump, the continent is a place from which to extract rather than somewhere to add or aid.

The negative consequences are well known by now. USAID is gone. Life will go on (or possibly not if you’re on subsidised antiretrovirals). 

Either way, America is keen on certain minerals used in modern manufacturing that happen to be found in Africa in great quantities. Copper and lithium among them.

They are to key batteries, electric vehicles and other green sectors. The Trump administration may not care much for renewables, but the minerals are also used in products such as iPhones (Apple CEO Tim Cook pictured below). 

That makes them newly attractive.

Heavy US pressure has already led to a mining deal with Ukraine. Greenland, rich in minerals, is facing similar pressure. All to strengthen domestic American industrial might and make smartphones at home.

The dynamic is now reaching Africa. The embattled government of DR Congo – which is extraordinarily abundant in just the right kind of metals – is positively eager to engage. 

In recent months it has touted a deal to the White House that would combine American mineral extraction rights with military support for the government. 

The model is the deal with Ukraine, however flawed. DRC government troops are fighting a (currently) losing battle with M23 rebels in the country’s east… which happens to be studded with minerals. 

Earlier this year, M23 seized the region’s two main cities, Goma and Bukavu, as well as the Bisie tin mine, the world's fourth largest, which had to shut down, costing the government millions.

Talks with enthusiastic American officials started soon after, and now also include neighbouring Rwanda, which supports the rebels – who recently withdrew from the Bisie mine in a gesture of supposed goodwill. Operations resumed (pictured below). 

A three-way deal is said to be close. Or perhaps bilateral deals between the US and the two minerals-dealing combatants.

Others on the continent seem destined to follow the Congolese path. 

Zimbabwe has already embraced foreign investments in the critical minerals sector, mainly Chinese. The government would welcome an America playing catch-up.  

• It holds Africa's largest lithium reserves and is actively seeking to capitalise on growing global demand. 

• The mining sector generated $5.4 billion in 2023, and the Chamber of Mines projects 7% growth in 2025.

Namibia has signed an agreement to supply critical minerals to the European Union, which wants to reduce its minerals reliance on China.

• Namibia is the world’s third-largest uranium producer. 

• Foreign mining investment surged to $1.2 billion in 2023.

America is hardly a stranger here. The Biden administration had its own African mining interests. The US invested $7.4 billion in Africa in 2023, with nearly $300 million specifically directed to critical mineral projects.

• At the 2022 US-Africa Leaders Summit, the American government struck a $15 billion trade deal, prioritising sustainable energy and critical minerals. 

But what’s new is the explicit linkage between the military self-interest of African rulers and their mining policies. Or perhaps that’s not so new afterall… 

Recall Simon Mann (below), the former UK soldier and coup plotter attracted to Equatorial Guinea by resources riches. One of many.

The promise and the peril of resource extraction are well known in Africa. Oil riches in various AU nations have undermined governance and peace. 

The African chapter of the “resource curse” is littered with military aid deals. The conclusive version may not yet have been written. But minerals for renewables follow a familiar storyline.

And yet, there are plenty of examples to the contrary. Africa has some, such as Botswana — using diamonds to build broader prosperity. 

But perhaps the most relevant is Malaysia. A century ago most of the country was covered in bush. Today its GDP per head is more than six times Africa’s. 

Malaysia carefully leveraged its income from mining to build transport infrastructure, which in turn helped it build a tourism sector, which generated the cash to invest in manufacturing and eventually spawned a significant financial centre as well as factories to manufacture electric vehicles (all while creating nature reserves too).

Much to learn there. Too bad that AirAsia this week cancelled the only direct link between Africa (in this case Nairobi) and the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur. 

Number of the week 

… of all East Africa’s solar home system sales in 2023 occurred in Kenya, while the country’s electricity access rose from 37% in 2013 to 79% in 2023. This is driven by initiatives like the Last Mile Connectivity Project, which connected 9 million rural residents. One in five Kenyan households now uses solar-powered mini-grids or standalone systems

Network corner

Top green jobs from…

• Schneider Electric: Transactional Sales Director (Cameroon)

• West Africa Blue: Country Director (Guinea)

• KOKO Networks: Head of Operations (Rwanda)

• BURN Manufacturing: Head of Electric Sales (Kenya)

• Anthesis Group: Global Marketing Manager (South Africa)

• Shift EV: Electric Drivetrain Engineering Manager (Egypt)

• ARC Power: Power Distribution Manager (Mozambique)

• M-KOPA: Deputy Regional Manager (Uganda)

• One Acre Fund: Government Relations Lead (Tanzania)

• Sun King: State Business Manager (Togo)