Welcome to Green Rising – African leaders are making promises greater than usual this year… buoyed by a surge in renewable energy. 

The pledge: Power for all. A grid connection to every house. 100% electrification. 

This has been talked about for decades – and become the norm in the rest of the world. Yet on about half the continent the lights remain off. 

The latest trend is to promise 100% electrification by 2030. Among those to make it are:

• Ghana (status quo: 88.8%). 

• South Africa (87.7%)

• Senegal (84%)

• Rwanda (currently 82.2%)

• Zambia (53.6%)

Malawi (currently 20%) wants to reach 70% by 2030. At a summit in Tanzania earlier this year, African heads of state pledged to expand “reliable, affordable and sustainable” electricity to another 300 million people by 2030.

For once, there is very little disagreement about the benefits of a development goal. All know electricity is key to health and prosperity. 

• In Malawi, 600 newly connected refrigerators have reduced vaccine spoilage and increased immunisation coverage in remote areas.

• The electrification of Ahovo School in Benin raised primary assessment pass rates from 23% to nearly 60%.

• Access to digital technologies in agribusiness represent a $1 trillion market opportunity.

The 90 million Nigerians still off-grid lack fulfillment of basic Maslowian needs. No other country has as many people without electricity. 

The overall impact of electrification – or at least correlation with it  – is easy to see from literacy and child mortality numbers. 

Our graph below for the most and least electrified country in continental Africa speaks for itself. 

Here is the good news. The rise of renewables has changed the game when it comes to connecting the more than half-billion Africans who remain unelectrified. 

Power generation is becoming more local and has been – to a degree – taken out of the hands of dysfunctional state bureaucracies. It’s also becoming more affordable every year thanks to falling solar panel and wind turbine prices.

A generation ago the facts below would have been unthinkable. Today they’re not yet known or celebrated enough: 

• In 2023, over 80% of the new power generation capacity added in sub-Saharan Africa was renewable, primarily solar and wind, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

• The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar PV has fallen by over 80% in the last decade, making it a cost-effective solution for both grid-connected and off-grid electrification projects across the continent.

• According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), nearly 100 million people in Africa gained access to electricity between 2015 and 2019, with this trend continuing through to 2024 through investments heavily focused on renewable energy projects.

• Africa installed 2.4 GW of new solar capacity in 2024, with a forecasted 42% surge in solar market growth in 2025

• Africa’s renewable energy capacity has grown by 24% annually since 2020, driven by large-scale solar, wind and hydro projects such as Kenya’s 310 MW Lake Turkana Wind Power Project, which powers 200,000 homes with clean energy.

• More than 55% of Africa’s energy already comes from renewable sources, positioning renewables as a backbone of the continent. 

Still, the 2030 deadline for full electrification espoused by many African governments is, well, a little optimistic — even if general cheering and glorying is justified.

Perhaps half the African population is meaningfully electrified today. That took many decades. The other half will not be connected in five years, no matter the wonders of renewables. Why? 

• Populations keep growing, and hence numerical electrification targets keep rising. 

• Connecting the unconnected gets ever harder as they tend to be ever more rural. The lower hanging city fruits are already on the grid.

• Much more money is needed. The International Energy Agency estimates Africa lacks 80% of the capital needed for full electrification. 

• Power generation alone is not enough. Power also needs to be distributed. And African grids are often broken or non-existent. 

Experts suggest a more realistic timeline for universal electrification is closer to 2050. This allows for gradual grid expansion, scaling of off-grid solutions, institutional reforms and sustained investment growth. 

Small, rich Gabon and Equatorial Guinea have achieved just above 90% electrification rates, placing them among the closest to full access in continental Africa. 

To achieve universal access by 2030, Africa would need to connect 90 million people each year, a rate three times higher than recent years. Still, it’s good to have a stretch goal.

Number of the week 

… people are directly or informally employed by off-grid solar companies in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. Off-grid solar now reaches 560 million people globally, powers 10+ million micro businesses, and generates over $9 billion in new income.

Network corner

Top green jobs from…

• Anthesis Group: Principal Business Developer (South Africa)

• BURN Manufacturing: Head of Electric Sales (Ghana)

• M-KOPA: Deputy Regional Manager (Uganda)

• Baker Hughes: Lead Project Management Specialist (Algeria)

• BASF: Supply Chain Manager, Agricultural Solutions (Egypt)

• D.light: Strategy Manager (Kenya)

• Scatec: E&S Advisor (Tunisia)

• Sun King: Customer Engagement Manager (Zambia)

• ZUTARI: Project Financial Accountant (Namibia)

• BasiGo: Fleet Operations Coordinator (Rwanda)